India, China and Canada are preparing to launch generic versions of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy after key patents on semaglutide expired this year, potentially lowering costs for diabetes and obesity treatments in emerging markets.

The patent expiration clears the way for local manufacturers to seek approvals to produce semaglutide without licensing fees. Analysts say the move could cut prices from more than US$900 a month in the United States to about US$15 per dose in India and China, but precise post‑patent pricing will depend on local market conditions and regulatory approvals.

Laurus Labs shares rose nearly 4 percent; Glenmark, Aurobindo Pharma, Lupin and Biocon gained about 3 percent each. Divi’s Laboratories, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Cipla, Sun Pharma, Zydus Lifesciences, Torrent Pharma and Wockhardt advanced 1-2 percent. The gains pushed the Nifty Pharma index up nearly 2 percent, making it one of the top sectoral performers on the NSE, The Economic Times reported.

India ranks second to China in adult diabetes cases and could have more than 440 million people who are overweight or obese by 2050, the Lancet and the International Diabetes Federation say.

“I think it really makes it more competitive, and it really reduces the delta there,” said Jason Brett, a principal medical head at Novo Nordisk in New Jersey.

On March 19, Novo Nordisk also won U.S. approval for a higher, 7.2 mg dose of Wegovy, as reported by CNBC, and the company plans to launch this dose in April to better compete with rival obesity treatments. In phase 3 trials, the higher dose produced an average weight loss of up to 21 percent after 72 weeks in people with obesity, compared with roughly 15 percent for the standard 2.4 mg dose; in a separate trial of people with obesity and Type 2 diabetes, the high dose showed average weight loss of 14.1 percent.

Indian generics makers frequently mentioned in coverage as likely entrants include Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Lupin. Chinese manufacturers are preparing to scale production, and Canadian regulators have received applications for domestic generics following the expiration of the data protection. Timing for market entry will vary by country depending on regulatory review and any remaining patent disputes.

Novo Nordisk, which has relied heavily on Ozempic and Wegovy for recent revenue growth, may seek to defend secondary patents covering formulations, delivery devices or manufacturing processes. Outcomes of such challenges differ by jurisdiction and could affect when generics reach patients.

Regulators will need to ensure generic products meet quality and bioequivalence standards, and manufacturers must scale supply chains to meet demand. While the lapse of key semaglutide protections opens significant opportunities for Asia’s generics industry and could broaden access to treatment, the pace and scale of disruption will be shaped by approvals, manufacturing capacity and any outstanding intellectual property litigation.

- Cathy Li